Without sustained immigration, economic growth will be notably slower. Moody Analytics analyzed the data and estimated that if annual United States immigration stayed at only 200,000 rather than a more normal one million, gross domestic product would be $1 trillion lower a decade from now. In addition, lower immigration portends big problems because the basic American retirement system — Social Security and Medicare — relies on workers to pay for retirees, and the entire expansion of the work force over the next 15 years will come from immigration. Lower immigration rates will mean serious funding shortfalls for older Americans. The final reason the low immigration number is so frightening is not really about population growth at all. It’s that the evidence increasingly says having immigrants here makes workers born in the United States more successful. That’s partly because immigrants start companies at twice the rate of native Americans. Almost half the … [Read more...] about Sharp Cuts in Immigration Threaten U.S. Economy and Innovation
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However, the results have been mixed. Hundreds of illegal dispensaries in California continue to proliferate, and the state’s governor, Gavin Newsom, recently ordered National Guard troops near the Mexican border to go after black market cannabis farms. And pot regulations have been unevenly applied. While major cities like Los Angeles and San Francisco host cannabis retailers, 80 percent of California’s nearly 500 municipalities do not. In Canada, it has been nearly a year since the country became the first major world economy to legalize recreational cannabis — a seminal moment akin to ending Prohibition in the United States. Yet a black market that has previously been estimated at 5.3 billion Canadian dollars continues to thrive, and legal sales are far below what proponents of legalization had hoped for. Six months after Canada legalized pot for recreational use, more than 40 percent of Canadian cannabis users said they bought it from illegal sources, according to … [Read more...] about How Do You Fix … All of It?
WASHINGTON — Federal Reserve officials are expected to cut interest rates for a second time on Wednesday, a move that could prove divisive among Fed officials and aggravate President Trump’s anger toward the central bank. The Fed's rate decision, which will be announced at 2 p.m. in Washington, will be accompanied by a fresh set of quarterly economic projections and followed by a news conference at 2:30 p.m. with the chair Jerome H. Powell. That means markets will have plenty of information to digest as they try to game out what comes next for the Fed, which lowered its policy interest rate by a quarter point for the first time in more than a decade in July as officials tried to protect the economy against uncertainty created by Mr. Trump’s trade war and a global economic slowdown. Mr. Trump has been pushing for an extensive cut, one that leaves rates at or below zero, but investors anticipate another quarter-point move — setting rates in a range of 1.75 … [Read more...] about A Preview of the Fed Meeting
Sometimes it’s worth stepping back to look at the full picture. He has pressured a foreign leader to interfere in the 2020 American presidential election. He urged a foreign country to intervene in the 2016 presidential election. He divulged classified information to foreign officials. He publicly undermined American intelligence agents while standing next to a hostile foreign autocrat. He hired a national security adviser who he knew had secretly worked as a foreign lobbyist. He encourages foreign leaders to enrich him and his family by staying at his hotels. He genuflects to murderous dictators. He has alienated America’s closest allies. He lied to the American people about his company’s business dealings in Russia. He tells new lies virtually every week — about the economy, voter fraud, even the weather. He spends hours on end watching television and days on end staying at resorts. He often declines to read briefing books or perform other basic functions … [Read more...] about Donald Trump vs. the United States of America
From the date burglars broke into the Democratic National Committee headquarters in the Watergate complex in 1972 until the resignation of President Richard Nixon two years later, the S&P 500 fell 25 percent. That might seem to be evidence that impeachment battles and constitutional crises are bad for business and, consequently, for financial markets. Except in that same span, the West German stock market fell by 26 percent, despite the absence of any equivalent political crisis. And during a more recent impeachment, Bill Clinton’s in 1998, the S&P actually rose 22 percent. In the 1970s, markets weren’t responding to troubles and high drama in Washington; they were adjusting to oil embargoes and a spike in inflation. In 1998, they reflected a booming economy. And those episodes have something to tell us today as an effort to impeach President Trump begins. On Tuesday afternoon, some analysts attributed a drop in major stock indexes, as well as a rally in Treasury … [Read more...] about What a Trump Impeachment Battle Means for Financial Markets