During an exit interview in November, 2016, just weeks after the election, David Remnick asked President Obama who the future leaders of the Democratic Party might be, and who could realistically challenge Trump in 2020. A surprising figure Obama named was Pete Buttigieg, the mayor of South Bend, Indiana, who, at the time, was only thirty-four. In recent weeks, Buttigieg’s profile has risen dramatically, and he has collected campaign donations at a surprising clip, considering that he lacks the national profile of a senator or governor. The field of Democrats running for President is enormous, but Buttigieg stands out for a few reasons. He’s a Navy veteran, born and raised in the city he governs, so you could say that he has real heartland credibility. He’s also the first gay Presidential candidate with a real shot at the nomination. Buttigieg is a millennial who graduated high school in the year 2000 and, if elected, would be the youngest President by far. In a … [Read more...] about Pete Buttigieg on How He Plans to Win the Democratic Nomination and Defeat Trump
Trump will win in 2020 odds
Early odds are good for Nancy Pelosi to hang onto her gavel. Photo: Zach Gibson/Getty Images For all sorts of good reasons, the main focus of political analysts looking ahead to next year’s election is an epochal presidential election, with much of the residual attention being devoted to a Senate battle that will determine whether the presidential winner is or isn’t in a good position to get executive branch and judicial nominees confirmed. But all 435 U.S. House seats are up in 2020 as well, with Democrats defending a 236-199 margin. As I noted last month, history suggests it will be very difficult for Republicans to make the net gains of 19 seats necessary to flip the House, which hasn’t changed hands in a presidential election since Dwight D. Eisenhower’s landslide win in 1952. But on the other hand, there are 31 House Democrats in districts Trump carried in 2016 (and after 2018, just three Republicans in Clinton ’16 districts), so it would be wise … [Read more...] about The House Probably Won’t Flip in 2020
It’s unclear whether the Sun King can get out of his own campaign’s way. Photo: Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images A lot of the analysis of the first round of Democratic presidential debates last week focused on the possible fodder the candidates and the subjects they debated might offer to the sinister general election opponent awaiting the eventual nominee in 2020. Here’s Larry Sabato and Kyle Kondik, after observing some of the more controversial positions many of the debaters embraced: The next election may be similar to the last couple of elections featuring incumbent presidents: 2004 and 2012. The incumbents those years, George W. Bush and Barack Obama, wanted the election to be a choice between them or their challengers; the challengers, John Kerry and Mitt Romney, respectively, wanted the election to be a referendum on the incumbent. Bush and Obama found enough cracks in their opponents that they avoided the kind of straight referendum that could have doomed … [Read more...] about Can the World’s Greatest Narcissist Really Avoid a ‘Referendum Election’ in 2020?
Different theories of electability support the candidacies of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, and Bernie Sanders. Photo: Getty Images It’s generally understood that for all the talk of Democrats “moving to the left” and embracing audaciously progressive policies, they are also very concerned about the “electability” of their 2020 presidential nominee. This is a concern that is likely to border on an obsession if the prospective general election looks close as voters begin voting, as I noted last month: [How will] Democrats — at both the elite and grassroots level — react to the real possibility of a second Trump win, particularly if it grows more plausible as 2020 approaches. Will they calmly resolve to unite behind whoever emerges from the abattoir of the nominating process, based on their popularity among Democratic primary voters? Or will they panic and become obsessed about “electability” as opposed to any other candidate quality? … [Read more...] about What Do Democrats Mean by ‘Electability’?
Part of running for President is the contest to tell the best story about the problems of the country. Both Donald Trump and some of his Democratic rivals have spent significant time narrating the economic uncertainty in the lives of all but the richest Americans, a feeling of entrapment and helplessness. The odds that the Democratic Presidential candidate Andrew Yang will last long in the race are slim, but in the contest to describe what’s wrong with America he has become a compelling and distinctive figure. Yang’s story begins with the displacement of workers by automation. He blames Donald Trump’s 2016 victory on the loss of four million manufacturing jobs in swing states. The loss of jobs, he emphasizes, has not been limited to manufacturing. Technology has taken revenue from malls, from newspapers, from taxi-drivers. For Yang, our country’s divisions are a purely economic story, with other problems—nastiness, racism, misogyny, bad ideas—caused … [Read more...] about How Andrew Yang’s Robot Apocalypse Can Heal a Divided Nation