The global automakers who have built factories in Britain fear that leaving the European Union will result in new barriers to trade with their biggest market. That would snarl their supply chains, disrupt production and erode profit margins that are already razor thin. … [Read more...] about US threatens to hike tariffs on UK car exports
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The bar has retained its original redwood paneling and moody lighting, but it got a new set of floors and a new set of furniture (though the decor remains in an Art Deco style.) The biggest piece of the bar's furniture — the bar, of course — is both new and old, depending on how you look at it. It was made by a custom woodworker from an 800-year-old redwood tree. The original artwork on the walls by Austrian painter Gustav Klimt was restored and re-hung. … [Read more...] about Before and after: Historic SF hotel undergoes down-to-the-studs renovation
If Trump agreed to back off pressure on China in exchange for very little change in their practices — practices that, unlike with Mexico and Canada, Trump has valid objections to that are shared by other U.S. political leaders — it will be a total cave and his Democratic opponent will say so. It would actually provide an opportunity for Democrats to be strong on what should be one of Trump’s strongest issues — accurately calling him “soft on China.” And while a late de-escalation likely would cause a pop in the stock market, any real economic damage that the trade war causes would take longer to unwind. … [Read more...] about What Does a Trade War Worst-Case Scenario Look Like?
Josh: Yes. One of the main reasons to think this may not lead to a global recession is an escalating trade war imposes costs on both the U.S. and China and both countries have incentives to avoid the worst consequences. That may not save us, but it is possible that politicians (and I count Xi as a politician, not just Trump) will follow incentives to pull back from the brink. … [Read more...] about Are Recession Fears More Justified Now?
Of course, Trump’s stance could change again — he’s run hot and cold on China in the past. But as the economy has cooled some and he faces reelection under the cloud of impeachment, I think he’d like to avoid additional economic drag on his political fortunes. And if he switches back to trade-warring, he’d impose that drag .So I think the “phase one” deal is likely to essentially mean a pause on further trade escalation until Election Day. This is somewhat positive news for businesses that rely on trade with China. … [Read more...] about Why Is the Stock Market Doing So Well?