By Joe Garofoli and John Wildermuth Updated 5:05 pm PDT, Tuesday, October 30, 2018 California candidates for governor, Democrat Gavin Newsom (left) and Republican John Cox. California candidates for governor, Democrat Gavin Newsom (left) and Republican John Cox. Photo: Rich Pedroncelli / Associated Press Gubernatorial candidate Gavin Newsom signs autographs in front of San Francisco City Hall Tuesday, with his campaign bus parked across the street. Gubernatorial candidate Gavin Newsom signs autographs in front of San Francisco City Hall Tuesday, with his campaign bus parked across the street. Photo: Gabrielle Lurie / The Chronicle California governor candidate John Cox listens as his opponent Gavin Newsom (not pictured) as he speaks at the Fairmont Hotel in San Francisco, California, on Tuesday, Oct. 30, 2018. California governor candidate … [Read more...] about John Cox blames ‘political class’ for a bleak California. Gavin Newsom sees a sunny side
“The world is full of obvious things which nobody by any chance ever observes.” So said Sherlock Holmes in “The Hound of the Baskervilles,” and the great detective’s observation may well apply to the upcoming midterm elections. One of the great lessons of 2016 was the failure of the political class to understand the difference between probability and possibility. On Oct. 17, 2016, Hillary Clinton had a 7-point lead over Donald Trump in the RealClearPolitics average of national polls. By the Friday before the election, Nov. 4, that advantage had slipped to 2 points. Although most politicos argued it was unlikely that Trump could win the presidency trailing Clinton going into the last weekend before the election, they forgot or chose to deny that it was still theoretically possible that voters could deliver a surprise outcome. Many are still in denial. Reading the political tea leaves three weeks out from next month’s elections … [Read more...] about The Political Class Got 2016 Wrong. Could We See a Repeat?
You, I’m sure, have never heard the name — Nick Polce. Don’t feel bad. Very few, if any, know the name in Wisconsin’s First Congressional District. That would not be important or significant, but the district is the home of House Speaker and Republican Paul RyanPaul Davis RyanMcCarthy says early leadership election to replace Ryan unlikely Overnight Defense: Pompeo grilled by Dems at nomination hearing | Faces tight panel vote | Mattis insists no decision yet on Syria | Dems seek answers on National Guard border deployment House Ethics calls on Farenthold to pay back K taxpayer-funded harassment settlement MORE, who now has decided not to run for re-election in November. Polce was banking on the chance that Ryan would once again seek re-election and Polce, a political nobody, would be the beneficiary of widespread disgust with the incumbent. Then, by beating Ryan in the Republican primary on Aug. 14, he would demonstrate that all incumbents are vulnerable, … [Read more...] about 2018 will test the power of political nobodies
Democracy Dies in Darkness Sections Home Subscribe Try 1 month for $1 Username Sign In Account Profile Newsletters & Alerts Gift Subscriptions Contact Us Help Desk Subscribe Account Profile Newsletters & Alerts Gift Subscriptions Contact Us Help Desk Accessibility for screenreader PostEverything Perspective Perspective Interpretation of the news based on evidence, including data, as well as anticipating how events might unfold based on past events How, for better and worse, the 45th president affects teaching political science in the classroom. How, for better and worse, the 45th president affects teaching political science in the classroom. by Daniel W. Drezner by Daniel W. Drezner April 5 at 8:15 AM Follow @dandrezner Daniel W. Drezner is a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and a regular contributor to … [Read more...] about Teaching political science in the age of Trump
Fellow Newsmax Insider Columnist Scott Rasmussen has done some number crunching and he reports in the 2018 midterm elections 48 congressional seats held by Democrats have no Republican opposition in the fall. On the other side of the aisle, in the districts currently held by Republicans, only nine lack a Democrat opponent. That is worse than 2014, which, according to Roll Call, had 30 Congressmen running unopposed in the general election. Even then many of the candidates who were running in 2016 were what Janet Shannon terms “plane crash candidates.” Meaning their only hope of victory was if a plane carrying the incumbent crashed. USA Today bears her out as it reported in 2016 that only 40 of the 435 congressional races that year were competitive, with the rest being incumbent shoo-ins. Why is there so little competition for well-paid indoor jobs with no heavy lifting? In a word: Gerrymandering. In our modern world voters no longer pick their congressmen. Instead the … [Read more...] about Our Political Class Discourages Recruitment