A good political pollster's job should be easy enough to understand: draw the best probability sample; ask balanced, fair-worded questions; be able to offer the best informed interpretation; and find the vectors that point to trends that could emerge. But if the client or pundits are looking for the final result of an election with certainty, including right up to the day before voters cast their ballots, they'd better visit a soothsayer or tarot card reader.When I first started in this profession in 1984, things were much simpler. There were relatively fewer political independents, up to 90 percent of voters had their minds made up mainly due to their party identification, and even how the undecideds would break in the end seemed to follow a clear pattern. That is not so today.ADVERTISEMENTIn any typical presidential election, as many as 10 percent to 15 percent tell us that they make up their mind on Election Day, and more likely voters than ever before choose to not vote … [Read more...] about No, the polls aren’t wrong — but you have to know what to look for
Donald trump 1980
Imagine that the most widespread, hysterical conspiracy theory in America came not from backwoods rumor mills but from the Ivy League-staffed, megacorp-owned news media. Oh, wait — you don’t have to imagine anything. You’ve been living this reality for years now!The last three U.S. presidents have seen some of their opposition unite under the banner of really juicy conspiracy theories: for Bush, it was that 9/11 was an inside job; for Obama, it was that an ineligible foreign national became commander-in-chief, possibly as a sleeper agent for The Muslims; for Trump, it’s that a hostile foreign power installed an illegitimate president who would do its bidding, thanks to humiliating blackmail material. Those first two conspiracy theories have been beaten down by time and vigorous debate — with experts and institutions meticulously fighting the sexy, imaginative narratives of their opponents. Yet the Russia conspiracies continue to thrive, because the … [Read more...] about Dulis: The ‘Pee Tape’ Hoax Is Finally, Absolutely Dead. It’s Time to Brand the ‘Rushers’ Who Pushed It.
Washington (CNN)The Labour Party's wipeout in Britain's election spelled out an undeniable warning to Democrats over the potential dangers of tracking too far to the left of more moderate national electorates. But it also highlighted a more profound parallel in the often synergistic US and UK politics that potentially poses longer-term threats to progressive parties: culturally and politically, they have lost touch with their heartland working-class voters -- the very people they were set up to represent. The most significant warning for Democrats from Jeremy Corbyn's disaster may be that when a party gets consumed by its own ideological debate, it risks losing sight of subtle changes in its own base. Conservative Party leader Boris Johnson picked up a haul of seats across Labour strongholds and won the support of the opposition party's traditional base -- blue collar, unionized industrial workers. As the results were rolling in on Thursday night, it looked a lot like US election … [Read more...] about Labour disaster may have omens for Democrats in 2020
Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s historic conservative victory in this week’s U.K. national election could spell trouble for radical leftist Democrat candidates like Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Bernie Sanders (I-VT), moderate Democrats warn.The victory, which has been described as the “biggest conservative victory since Lady Thatcher in the 1980s,” should serve as a warning shot for far-left candidates in the United States, “moderate” Democrats are warning, according to Politico. Moderate Democrats have placed much of the blame on the Labour Party’s face, socialist Jeremy Corbyn. They fear he serves as proof that a more moderate candidate is needed to take on President Donald Trump in 2020 — not ultra-leftist candidates like Sanders or Warren. “It’s a lesson for all Democrats who are eager to replace Trump,” former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel said, according to Politico. “There was no skimping on the progressive … [Read more...] about Moderates Warn Conservative Victory in U.K. Election Could Spell Bad News for Radical Democrats
Commentary By Dan Walters, CalMatters Originally published on Sunday, December 1 The very rapid decline of California's Republican Party — from near-dominance in the 1980s and early 1990s to its current irrelevance — has been one of the state's most dramatic political events. Thirty years ago, in 1989, Republicans were on a roll in California, to wit: —GOP candidates dominated the state's presidential elections, including the election and re-election of Ronald Reagan. —Republican George Deukmejian was winding up two terms as governor and would soon be succeeded by another Republican, Pete Wilson. —Democratic registration, once close to 60%, had dropped to below 50% while the GOP's share had climbed to nearly 40% and leading Democrats were openly worried about becoming the state's minority party. The roll continued into the early 1990s as Wilson won re-election in 1994, his party captured several other statewide offices and Republicans won a one-seat … [Read more...] about The Decline And Fall Of CA’s GOP (Opinion)