Every few years, the U.S. National Intelligence Council publishes its forecast of what the world will look like two decades in the future. The most recent iteration, Global Trends 2040 , was released in April. While generally painting a depressing picture of the future two decades hence, it holds out hope — at least for those invested in preserving some semblance of a U.S.-led, rules-based order.
The report begins with an overview of the deep structural forces – demographic, environmental, economic and technological – that will reshape the world over the next two decades. It then discusses how these structural forces – in combination with human responses – are transforming societies, states and the international system. The report concludes, as many exercises in futurology do, by envisioning a number of plausible future scenarios. Key themes such as "fragmentation," "disequilibrium" and "contestation" appear across all three sections.
While Global Trends 2040 covers a wide range of structural changes and emerging trends, perhaps the most important insights have to do with the way that these are transforming the international system. The report's core argument in this regard is simple:
"In the international system, no single state is likely to be positioned to dominate across all regions or domains, and a broader range of actors will compete to shape the international system and achieve narrower goals. Accelerating shifts in military power, demographics, economic growth, environmental conditions, and technology, as well as hardening divisions over governance models, are likely to further ratchet up competition between China and a Western coalition led by the United States.
Rival powers will jockey to shape global norms, rules, and institutions, while regional powers and nonstate actors may exert more influence and lead on issues left unattended by the major powers. These highly varied interactions are likely to produce a more conflict-prone and volatile geopolitical environment, undermine global multilateralism, and broaden the mismatch between transnational challenges and institutional arrangements to tackle them.
Put slightly differently, Global Trends 2040 concludes that accelerating changes in the nature, sources and distribution of geopolitical power are placing the rules-based order that has been in place since the end of WWII under increasingly insupportable stress.
That order, it will be recalled, was built by the victorious United States in the 1940s with the goal of both securing America's narrow national interests and realizing the broader vision of a peaceful and prosperous world. It took the form of an essentially liberal set rules, norms and institutions intended to promote peace and prosperity through the spread of liberal democracy, the promotion of free trade, and the creation of global multilateral organization designed to facilitate cooperation. It was predicated on U.S. primacy and held together by a United States willing to invest the blood and treasure necessary to make it work. And most fundamentally, it was built on a set of social, economic and technological foundations specific to the mid-20th century.
Global Trends 2040 argues that deep structural changes and emerging trends are eroding these foundations in ways that make it unlikely that the international order built in the immediate postwar era will survive to see its centenary. And while the report makes much of the role of human choice in shaping the way that emerging dynamics will reshape the world over the next two decades, it offers little hope that the U.S. will be able to produce some sort of strategic fix that will rescue the rules-based order from its fated demise. The rules-based order as we have known it is simply passing from the scene, the report concludes, and there is nothing that the United States or any other actor can do to save it.
In its final section, Global Trends 2040 lays out five future scenarios, each of which it portrays as a plausible successor to the current international order. The first of these envisions the European Union and China trying to pick up the pieces of international order in the aftermath of a devastating global environmental crisis.
The next three – "A World Adrift," "Competitive Coexistence" and "Separate Silos" – are, to varying degrees, dystopian nightmares of conflict, contestation and collapse. And the final scenario, "Renaissance of Democracies," envisions a restoration of the liberal, rules-based international order, centered on a community of "open democracies."
While the report does not explicitly come out in favor of any of these future worlds, it is clear where its preferences lie. Global Trends 2040 is more than just a fascinating glimpse into the world (or worlds) that might materialize two decades hence. It is also a cautionary tale, painting a grim picture of the various dystopias that might arise out of the wreckage of the postwar international order.
But perhaps even more significantly, Global Trends 2040 is a call to arms. In making its case the way its authors do, there can be little doubt that they favor the "Renaissance of Democracies" scenario. Nor do they leave much doubt as to how this renaissance is to be achieved. As in 1945, the world's democracies, with the U.S. in the lead, must rally to create a new rules-based international order — one that embodies the spirit of liberal internationalism, even as it is attuned to the realities of the mid-21st century rather than those of the mid-20th.
Andrew Latham is a professor of international relations at Macalester College in St. Paul, Minn.
- VN's place in world order
- Deputy PM and FM presents Vietnam’s place in world order
- Macron stuns US Congress with strong rebuke of Trumpism
- The United Nations of China: A vision of the world order
- Singapore-led Asean favors China over US
- Japanese women attempting to save man’s life after suffering stroke in sumo ring ordered to leave for being ‘ritually unclean’
- Japanese couple apologise for getting pregnant ‘before their turn’ and ‘selfishly’ breaking company rules
- Proud or shameful legacy: Justice and the rule of law
- Syria strikes: Russia warns of 'consequences' in wake of US-led attack over chemical weapon use
- Starbucks apologises after staff call police to arrest two black men 'who didn't order anything'
- Look beyond transactionalism: It is time India and the US redefined their ties in light of 21st century power shifts
- Are we on the brink of World War 3?
- US Air Force orders 'hypersonic conventional strike weapon'
- ‘The integration of China into the global economy is a great success story of the US-led order’
- Africa's Economic Growth On the Increase Driven By Commodities, World Bank Outlook
- Africa: 'Fake News' A Growing New Threat to Press Freedom
- African World Cup Quintet to Receive U.S.$2 Million Advance
- New Orleans May Day march calls on City Hall to support immigrants and hospitality workers' platform
- Trump's immigration order faces mounting legal questions
- Nigeria: Freedom of Information Act Applicable to All States in Nigeria, Appeal Court Rules
|New Urban Cowboy: Toward a New Pedestrianism (check at Amazon)||0.0|
|New Apple MC414LL/A New MC414LLA Airport Express Base Station (check at Amazon)||0.0|
|45vinylrecord Only Love Can Break A Heart/If I Ruled The World (7"/45 rpm) (check at Amazon)||0.0|
|Overcoming Dyslexia: A New and Complete Science-Based Program for Reading Problems at Any Level (check at Amazon)||0.0|
|The elusive presence: Toward a new Biblical theology (Religious perspectives) (check at Amazon)||0.0|
|The Wauchula Woods Accord: Toward a New Understanding of Animals (check at Amazon)||0.0|
|The Storm of War: A New History of the Second World War (check at Amazon)||0.0|
|Pray for the World: A New Prayer Resource from Operation World (check at Amazon)||0.0|
|What We Think About When We Try Not To Think About Global Warming: Toward a New Psychology of Climate Action (check at Amazon)||0.0|
|Dying in the Twenty-First Century: Toward a New Ethical Framework for the Art of Dying Well (Basic Bioethics) (check at Amazon)||0.0|
|Home Sweet Anywhere: How We Sold Our House, Created a New Life, and Saw the World (check at Amazon)||0.0|
|The Bible in Human Transformation: Toward a New Paradigm in Bible Study (Facets) (check at Amazon)||0.0|
|Do Apes Read Minds?: Toward a New Folk Psychology (MIT Press) (check at Amazon)||0.0|
|American Indians and World War II: Toward a New Era in Indian Affairs (check at Amazon)||0.0|
|Toward A New Beginning (Arkansas Valley) (Volume 1) (check at Amazon)||0.0|
|The Atkins Journal: Your Personal Journey Toward a New You, A 120-Day Record (check at Amazon)||0.0|
|Your Competent Child: Toward A New Paradigm In Parenting And Education (check at Amazon)||0.0|
|Towards a New Architecture (Dover Architecture) (check at Amazon)||0.0|
|Toward a New Common School Movement (Critical Interventions) (check at Amazon)||0.0|
|Toward a New Psychology of Women (check at Amazon)||0.0|
|Towards a New Manifesto (check at Amazon)||0.0|
|The new Testament A new Translation and Explanation Based on the Oldest Manuscripts (check at Amazon)||0.0|
|The Romantic Syndrome: Toward a New Method in Cultural Anthropology and History of Ideas (International Scholars Forum) (check at Amazon)||0.0|
|Creative Integrative Medicine: A Medical Doctor's Journey toward a New Vision for Health Care (check at Amazon)||0.0|
|Why Germany Nearly Won: A New History of the Second World War (check at Amazon)||0.0|
|Music and Soulmaking: Toward a New Theory of Music Therapy (check at Amazon)||0.0|
|Civilization: A New History of the Western World (check at Amazon)||0.0|
|Towards a New Epoch. Geoffrey Bles. 1949. (check at Amazon)||0.0|
|Facing Ethnic Conflicts: Toward a New Realism (check at Amazon)||0.0|
|Towards a New Man (Development World) (check at Amazon)||0.0|
|Prophecy and Hermeneutics: Toward a New Introduction to the Prophets (Studies in Theological Interpretation) (check at Amazon)||0.0|
|Androgyny: Toward a New Theory of Sexuality (check at Amazon)||0.0|
|Risk Society: Towards a New Modernity (Published in association with Theory, Culture & Society) (check at Amazon)||0.0|
|Rurouni Kenshin, Vol. 9: Toward a New Era, Vizbig Edition (check at Amazon)||0.0|
|The Holy Earth: Toward a New Environmental Ethic (check at Amazon)||0.0|
|Uncontrollable Beauty: Toward a New Aesthetics (check at Amazon)||0.0|
|The Invisible Empire in West: Toward a New Historical Appraisal of the Ku Klux Klan of the 1920s (check at Amazon)||0.0|
|Andrew Roberts'sThe Storm of War: A New History of the Second World War [Hardcover]2011 (check at Amazon)||0.0|
|Working Toward a New Liturgical Calendar: A Calendar Including God's Holy Days (check at Amazon)||0.0|
|By Jerald E. Brown - The Years of the Life of Samuel Lane, 1718-1806: A New Hampshire Man and His World: 1st (first) Edition (check at Amazon)||0.0|
|Realizing Mental Health : Toward a New Psychology of Resiliency (check at Amazon)||0.0|
|Straight to the Top: CIO Leadership in a Mobile, Social, and Cloud-based World (check at Amazon)||0.0|
|Trails: Toward a New Western History (check at Amazon)||0.0|
|OHIO THE WORLD 1753 2053: ESSAYS TOWARD A NEW HISTORY OF OHIO (check at Amazon)||0.0|
|Toward a New World Order: The Countdown to Armageddon (check at Amazon)||0.0|
|World Investment Report 2012: Towards a New Generation of Investment Policies (check at Amazon)||0.0|
|Towards a New World View: Conversations at the Leading Edge (check at Amazon)||0.0|
|Toward a New Civilization: Why We Must Tame Our Instincts to Save Our World (check at Amazon)||0.0|
|Toward a New World: Speeches, Essays, and Interviews on the War in Iraq, the UN, and the Changing Face of Europe (check at Amazon)||0.0|
|The Aspirant: Crawling toward a new world (check at Amazon)||0.0|
Toward a new US-led, rules-based world order have 1865 words, post on thehill.com at June 10, 2021. This is cached page on USA Breaking News. If you want remove this page, please contact us.